An updated study of enrollment projections contains different numbers and methodology, but the final result is the same – most of the anticipated growth in the Monona Grove School District will come from the Cottage Grove area.

Dan Eckberg and Mike Slavney, of Vandewalle & Associates, shared their findings with the Monona Grove School Board at the March 22 meeting.

“The vast majority of student growth for new housing … is likely to come from the Cottage Grove area,” Eckberg said.

While new residential projects and infill development in Monona are expected to bring in more residents, the number of additional students who will attend Winnequah School will be minimal, Eckberg said.

Superintendent Dan Olson said the report is an update to one issued a couple of years ago.

Eckbert said the study used a different methodology this time around, but the end result still shows a significant increase in student population in the next five years. Again, they projected a low-end and high-end scenario.

“The low-end projection, we estimated there will be a net gain of 440 students in five years districtwide by 2021-22 school year, including a gain of 71 students at Glacial Drumlin Middle School,” he said. “And for the high-end projection, we estimate almost 609 new students districtwide, with a gain of about 114 at Glacial Drumlin Middle School.”

Low-end projections show:

– Winnequah School, from 558 students in 216-17 to 517 in 2021-22, a decrease of 41 students

– Taylor Prairie School, from 369 to 428, an increase of 59

– Cottage Grove School, from 457 to 498, an increase of 41

– Glacial Drumlin School, from 918 to 989, an increase of 71

– Monona Grove High School, from 979 to 1,289, an increase of 310

– Districtwide, from 3,281 to 3,721, an increase of 440

High-end projections show:

– Winnequah School, from 558 to 517, a decrease of 41

– Taylor Prairie School, from 369 to 458, an increase of 89

– Cottage Grove School, from 457 to 528, an increase of 71

– Glacial Drumlin School, from 918 to 1,032, an increase of 114

– Monona Grove High School, from 979 to 1,332, an increase of 353

– Districtwide, from 3,281 to 3,866, an increase of 585

Housing growth was based on discussions with staff from the city of Monona and town and village of Cottage Grove, along with a detailed analysis of developer and municipal growth plans, including the city of Madison’s long-range planning area.

Resident student growth in the low-end projection is primarily based upon the Wisconsin Department of Administration’s official population projections. For the high-end projections, numbers are based on a hybrid of DOA projections and historic migration.

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